Update, 23 October 2026: We corrected this story. The Mercer survey was published on 25 February 2026, not in May. It surveyed 825 C-suite leaders, not only CEOs. The 99% figure means "at least some" headcount reduction, not a plan for mass layoffs. Newer layoffs data is added below.
According to coverage of Mercer's Global Talent Trends 2026 report, 99% of the 825 C-suite leaders surveyed expect AI to cause at least some headcount reduction within two years. Mercer's own press release does not contain that figure, which is why we cite the secondary report. It is a statement of expectation, not a layoff plan, and nothing Mercer has published says junior staff will be cut first.
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What the Mercer survey actually says
Mercer published the report on 25 February 2026, based on nearly 12,000 executives, HR leaders, investors and employees, surveyed in autumn 2025. Mercer says 44% of employees now report thriving at work, down from 66% in 2024, and 65% of executives expect 11% to 30% of their workforce to be redeployed or reskilled because of AI.
The headline numbers come from Moneywise's coverage of the full report, republished by Yahoo Finance: 99% of the 825 C-suite respondents expect some AI-driven headcount reduction, and only 32% believe their organisation can combine human and machine capabilities optimally. "At least some" is a low bar. The survey gives no size for the cuts.
Where entry-level jobs come in
Mercer's public summary does not break out entry-level roles. The same Yahoo Finance report cites a separate Oliver Wyman study in which the share of CEOs planning to cut junior roles rose from 17% in 2025 to 43% in 2026.
Anthropic's Dario Amodei made the underlying argument in May 2025, telling Axios that AI could eliminate half of entry-level white-collar jobs within one to five years. It is a prediction from an AI company chief, not a measurement.
The measured picture is milder but not comfortable. The New York Fed's labor market tracker shows unemployment for recent US college graduates aged 22 to 27 at about 5.6% in the second quarter of 2026, with underemployment near 42%. The Fed does not attribute that to AI alone.
Layoffs so far
Challenger, Gray & Christmas, which counts announced US job cuts, has named AI as the top cited reason for layoffs in its monthly reports for five straight months through July.
One company example was widely reported. Meta said in April it would cut about 8,000 jobs, roughly 10% of staff, with the cuts taking effect on 20 May, according to CNN.
What changed since May: Challenger's monthly reports show AI-attributed cuts of 10,970 in July, still the top cited reason for a fifth straight month, and total announced cuts of 43,281 in September, down 18% from August. The wave has not been steady.
What this means for Nigeria
Many Nigerian entry-level jobs sit in customer support, outsourcing and junior software work. A Mastercard Foundation-backed study by Caribou Digital and Genesis Analytics, reported by Techeconomy, estimates that customer-experience roles make up 44% of African outsourcing employment and that 40% of tasks in the sector could be automated by 2030. That is a projection, and the same report sees paths into higher-skilled work.
The Branch cuts in Kenya and Nigeria are often cited here. TechCabal reported that Branch confirmed the layoffs and said its businesses there were profitable. The reports we reviewed do not say AI was the reason, so it is not evidence of AI displacement.
READ ALSO: Branch Cuts Jobs in Nigeria and Kenya Despite $30M Profit
Will the cuts reach Nigerian offices?
- Whether executive expectations turn into actual cuts. The survey measures intent, and companies often cite AI for cuts driven by cost or investor pressure.
- How large the cuts will be. "At least some" could mean a few percent.
- How much of the graduate unemployment rise is AI, and how much is a weak hiring market.
- The Oliver Wyman junior-role figures, which we have not verified at source.
For a Nigerian graduate, the practical reading is to build skills AI tools do not replace cheaply: client handling, domain knowledge, and the ability to check machine output.
Executives expect AI to shrink headcount. Nobody has yet shown how fast, or who bears it first.
